Sure, a big part of the excitement of sports betting lies in the fact that there is no way to predict the outcome with 100% certainty. But there are certain mathematical principles that can be understood and applied to increase your payout potential.
And it’s easy to understand the basic math of bookmaking well enough to start applying this understanding to making smarter bets. The basics you need to get the upper hand include how sports betting is paid out and how bookmakers calculate the odds for big sporting events like FIFA betting .
Learn how sports betting is paid
Understanding the math of book building will help you understand how your bet will pay off if you win is vital. Sportsbooks pay bets based on the math of the book build.
Basically, when a bet wins, the bookie will pay out the bet amount multiplied by the odds (to be explained shortly) offered on that particular bet. To give a simple example, let’s say your chosen team has a 1 in 11 chance of winning the Rugby World Cup. The odds of that team winning are then 11/1. In other words, if you bet $1, you’ll get your $1 back plus another $11, 11 times your original bet.
It is important to note that the safer bets with better odds will pay out less. For example, if your chosen team has even better odds of 1/3. Your winnings will only add up to $3, so more experienced bettors will often choose a weaker option, despite the higher odds. This is where the math of bookmaking starts to get a bit more interesting.
Understanding how bookmakers calculate odds
Technically, the law of probability dictates that each contestant has an equal chance of winning. But that’s never strictly true in real life, as player injuries and other factors come into play.
Also, it wouldn’t be worth it for any sportsbook to offer those kinds of odds, as all bettors would have to do to get their money back would be to bet the same amount on all competitors, leaving the bookie with no profit and the bettor with a very boring game.
So the term “odds” means something a little different when it comes to the math of bookmaking. Remember that sportsbooks are businesses and their goal is to make a profit. For that reason, sportsbooks will modify “true” odds based on certain relevant data available to them. However, keep in mind that sportsbook odds will not necessarily be a reflection of reality. In other words, the mathematics of bookmaking does not impose an obligation on the bookmaker to give the weakest competitor the highest odds or the strongest competitor the best odds. In fact, Sportsbooks often artificially fabricate odds to discourage punters from placing certain bets. So it’s vital that you keep abreast of developments in your chosen sport so you know when the odds are down.
Finally, the most unique aspect of the mathematics of bet creation is the practice of rounding. Excessive rounding is what sportsbooks do to make sure they always make a profit, even if they have to pay out 100% of the bets placed. Essentially, they add a bit to the top so that all bets add up to just over 100%. So if all the bets collectively add up to $100 and ladbrokes has to call 100% of them, there is still $20 of profit left for the bookie at 20%.